Despite what the polls say, Trump has a good chance at winning this November — here’s the only way Joe Biden could edge it.
I’m fascinated by polls — every election they generally get more and more accurate at showing public opinion.
At the minute, there is an overwhelming poll majority for Joe Biden in the 2020 US Presidential Election. A recent poll in Florida — known as a bellwether state — showed Donald Trump on 40%, Joe Biden on 49%, other (inc. would not vote) on 6% and undecided voters also on 6%.
This poll seems pretty decisive for Biden, doesn’t it? However, he’s not as safe as you think. A poll conducted near the same dates in 2016 predicted Clinton with a 13% lead — something which certainly did not happen in November that year.
Trump’s true shining moments generally come after September — he’s fast in the debates, winning over swing-voters and consolidating support from his core-vote. He ramps up his campaign efforts, spending shedloads of money. Obviously it’s been difficult due to the pandemic, but if Joe Biden even wants a look-in when it comes to the weeks before the election, he has to get out campaigning. He’s not an orator like Trump, he’s viewed as bland, and Trump is making use of claims of Biden’s senility and mental decline. As far as I’m concerned, there’s only one way to do this.
Many of my readers/listeners are from the United Kingdom — therefore I’d forgive them for now knowing who Tulsi Gabbard is. Gabbard was a prominent yet not-so-successful figure in the race to become Democratic nominee. She stood out from other Democrats — having served in the US Army, as well as having more socially Conservative views on some issues, as well as stong, anti-interventionist views on foreign wars. Gabbard only picked up a mere two delegates, but did fight on until the bitter end, until there were just three candidates in the race.
Many in the Democratic party aren’t fans of Gabbard and her views — they’d like Biden to pick a more typical-Democrat candidate for Vice-President, such as Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar. However, this isn’t going to help Biden win — despite the fact that some Republicans are very unhappy with Donald Trump, they’re also very unlikely to vote him out in favour of a Liberal-Left ticket like this.
Tulsi Gabbard, however, is one person who could swing their vote. She’s on the right of the Democratic party socially, and has no problems with appearing on Republican-heavy networks such as Fox News. In fact, during her running in the race to become Democratic nominee she was a frequent guest on shows such as Tucker Carlson Tonight. She’s also been ‘snubbed’ by CNN, and hates Hilary Clinton.
This could be the key to Biden winning — if he appointed Gabbard as VP, then he would win over both the Liberal-Left of the Democratic Party and also probably enough Republicans to secure a win. The ‘establishment’ Democrats certainly wouldn't be happy with the decisions, but who else would they vote for? Jill Stein, the Green candidate, would be the only option — but no one will vote for her because she’s not going to win. So the Democrats opposed to Gabbard would likely, albeit begrudgingly, go along with the Biden-Gabbard ticket, whilst swing-voters and Republicans would have faith in Gabbard to prevent Biden from doing anything radically against their views. In theory, it’s the perfect way for the Democrats to win votes.
Of course, there could be issues — the appointment of Gabbard as VP candidate could put more fuel into the fire that is Democrat infighting, and Gabbard hasn’t exactly held back criticism for Biden (although when she pulled out she did endorse him as opposed to Bernie Sanders). There’s also the fact that it’s a gamble — Republicans may still not want to put their trust in Biden even with Gabbard, leading to a split Democratic party and a second term for Trump as President.
Despite these issues, without this ticket Trump still has a relatively easy path to the White House for a second term — he has an extremely (and I mean extremely) robust core supporter base who will go on supporting him no-matter-what, and it’s unlikely that even Republican voters unhappy with Trump will be wooed over by a Liberal-Left ticket of Biden-Warren, or Biden-Klobuchar.
Whatever happens, this election will certainly be very interesting. Will Biden win or will Trump defy the pundits yet again to gain a second-term? We’ll just have to wait until November and see.
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